Climate model genealogy
Climate model genealogy
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gl046864
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发表时间：
2011-04-23
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Knutti, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Masson, D.;Knutti, R.
气候变化预估通常作为气候模式集合的平均加权平均值给出，尽管底层集合的抽样尚不清楚。我们表明，在控制模拟中，地表温度或降水的时空变化度量的分层聚类可以捕获不同集合之间的许多模型关系。在同一机构开发的模式之间，在共享相同大气成分版本的模式之间，以及在同一模式的连续版本之间，都可以看到很强的相似性。一个模型的扰动参数系综与其他结构不同的模型是分离的。结果提供了对模型间关系的洞察，模型是如何通过连续几代发展的，并表明在这样的机会集合中假设模型独立是不合理的。引用本文：Masson， D.和R. Knutti(2011)，气候模式谱系，地球物理学。卷。， 38, L08703, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046864。
Climate change projections are often given as equally weighted averages across ensembles of climate models, despite the fact that the sampling of the underlying ensembles is unclear. We show that a hierarchical clustering of a metric of spatial and temporal variations of either surface temperature or precipitation in control simulations can capture many model relationships across different ensembles. Strong similarities are seen between models developed at the same institution, between models sharing versions of the same atmospheric component, and between successive versions of the same model. A perturbed parameter ensemble of a model appears separate from other structurally different models. The results provide insight into intermodel relationships, into how models evolve through successive generations, and suggest that assuming model independence in such ensembles of opportunity is not justified. Citation: Masson, D., and R. Knutti (2011), Climate model genealogy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08703, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046864.