Ecosystem dynamics in Tokyo Bay with a focus on high trophic levels using Ecopath with Ecosim
Ecosystem dynamics in Tokyo Bay with a focus on high trophic levels using Ecopath with Ecosim
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使用 Ecopath 和 Ecosim 分析东京湾的生态系统动态，重点关注高营养级
DOI：
10.1007/s00773-016-0388-8
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Shirakihara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sakamoto A; K. Shirakihara
本研究的目的是调查生态系统动态在东京湾，一个半封闭的海湾包围在日本东京大都市区，这是世界上最大的和人口最多的工业化地区之一。自20世纪60年代以来，该海湾一直处于富营养化状态，浮游植物生物量的过度增加导致缺氧。Ecopath结合Ecosim对浮游植物动态进行了模拟，模拟结果与实测的相对生物量吻合较好。为了评估浮游植物动态、缺氧和捕捞对动态的影响，重点是高营养水平（直至鱼类），测试了3种情景，即“年浮游植物生物量恒定”、“无缺氧”和“无捕捞”。与“控制”方案相比，没有任何修改，表明：（1）动态是由浮游植物控制（自下而上的控制），（2）缺氧没有对过去的动态产生严重影响，（3）停止捕捞不会有助于恢复的生物量的开发鱼类。在“DO恶化”和“DO不变”情景下对未来动态的预测表明，如果DO恶化到足以减少大多数底栖动物的生存，生态系统可能会经历一个不可忽视的转变，通过灭绝或生物量减少的一些底栖动物。
The present study aimed to investigate ecosystem dynamics in Tokyo Bay, a semi-enclosed bay surrounded by the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan, which is one of the largest and most populous industrialized areas in the world. The bay has been subject to eutrophication since the 1960s, and excessive increase in phytoplankton biomass has led to hypoxia. Ecopath with Ecosim was used to simulate the phytoplankton dynamics, and it could closely reproduce the observed relative biomass. To evaluate the impacts of phytoplankton dynamics, hypoxia, and fishing on the dynamics, with a focus on high trophic levels (up to fish), 3 scenarios, “Yearly constant phytoplankton biomass,” “No hypoxia,” and “No fishing,” were tested. Comparisons with the “Control” scenario without any modifications suggested that (1) the dynamics was controlled by phytoplankton (bottom-up control), (2) hypoxia did not have a serious effect on the past dynamics, and (3) stopping fishing would not contribute to recover of the biomass of exploited fish. Predictions for future dynamics under the scenarios “DO deteriorated” and “DO unchanged” suggest that if DO deteriorates strongly enough to decrease the survival of most benthos, the ecosystem might undergo a non-negligible transformation through extinction or biomass decrease of some benthos.