Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Employment versus Punishment Effects
Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Employment versus Punishment Effects
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估计犯罪的经济模型：就业与惩罚效应
DOI：
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Myers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Myers
Ann Dryden Witte [1980] 最近在本期刊中指出，当使用个人数据来估计再逮捕率的决定因素时，威慑假设（或“犯罪的经济模型”）得到了新的支持。维特使用北卡罗来纳州释放囚犯的丰富且精心构建的微观数据集来估计传统的犯罪经济模型。她的主要发现是（1）惩罚的确定性和严厉程度的增加往往会减少犯罪参与（以每月免费逮捕或定罪的数量来衡量），（2）更高的法定工资对犯罪的威慑作用极弱。在这篇评论中，我描述了两个单独的数据集，在这些数据集中我发现了相反的结果。使用1972年从联邦监狱释放的罪犯样本，我发现惩罚严厉程度的增加与犯罪参与程度弱相关，而惩罚确定性的增加与犯罪参与程度正相关。此外，通过使用从马里兰州监狱释放的男性财产犯罪惯犯的样本，我发现较高的工资对犯罪具有强大且一致的威慑作用。至少从这些数据中得出的结论是，改善合法就业机会在减少犯罪方面可能与增加惩罚一样有效，甚至更有效。
Ann Dryden Witte [1980] has recently argued in this Journal that new support is found for the deterrent hypothesis (or the "economic model of crime") when individual data are employed to estimate the determinants of rearrest rates. Witte estimates a conventional economic model of crime using a rich and carefully constructed microdata set of released prisoners in North Carolina. Her principal findings are that (1) increases in the certainty and severity of punishment tend to reduce participation in crime (measured by number of arrests or convictions per month free), and (2) higher legal wages have an extremely weak deterrent effect on crime.In this comment I describe two separate data sets within which I find just the opposite results. Using a sample of offenders released from federal prisons in 1972, I find that increases in the severity of punishment are weakly related to participation in crime, while increases in the certainty of punishment are positively related to participation in crime. In addition, using a sample of male repeat property offenders released from Maryland prisons, I find that higher wages have a strong and consistent deterrent effect on crime. The conclusion is reached, at least from these data sets, that improving legitimate employment opportunities may be as effective, if not more effective, in reducing crime as is an increase in punishment.