Fog Prediction for Road Traffic Safety in a Coastal Desert Region
Fog Prediction for Road Traffic Safety in a Coastal Desert Region
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DOI：
10.1007/s10546-012-9750-5
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Gera, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bartok, Juraj;Bott, Andreas;Gera, Martin
现代天气预报模式对微物理和其他次网格尺度大气过程使用相对较高的网格分辨率和复杂的参数化方案。尽管如此，这些模式仍然是一个困难的任务，以执行成功的数值雾预报，因为许多因素控制一个特定的雾事件尚未充分模拟。在这里，我们描述了我们的努力，以创建一个机制，产生成功的预测雾在位于阿拉伯半岛的北海岸的领土。我们的方法包括在耦合的一维PAFOG雾模型与三维WRF 3.0（天气研究和预报）建模系统。所提出的方法使我们能够构建一个有效的可操作的道路交通预警系统的雾在调查区域的发生。2008-2009年期间，共研究了84个历史情况。此外，业务逐天雾预报在2010年1月和2月的结果。在干热气候区，海陆风环流是影响气象条件日变化的主要因素，经常导致雾的形成。
Modern weather prediction models use relatively high grid resolutions as well as sophisticated parametrization schemes for microphysical and other subgrid-scale atmospheric processes. Nonetheless, with these models it remains a difficult task to perform successful numerical fog forecasts since many factors controlling a particular fog event are not yet sufficiently simulated. Here we describe our efforts to create a mechanism that produces successful predictions of fog in the territory located on the north coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Our approach consists in the coupling of the one-dimensional PAFOG fog model with the three-dimensional WRF 3.0 (Weather Research and Forecast) modelling system. The proposed method allows us to construct an efficient operative road traffic warning system for the occurrence of fog in the investigated region. In total 84 historical situations were studied during the period 2008-2009. Moreover, results of operative day-by-day fog forecasting during January and February 2010 are presented. For the investigated arid and hot climate region the land-sea breeze circulation seems to be the major factor affecting the diurnal variations of the meteorological conditions, frequently resulting in the formation of fog.