Improving Uncertainty Analysis in European Union Risk Assessment of Chemicals
Improving Uncertainty Analysis in European Union Risk Assessment of Chemicals
复制标题
改进欧盟化学品风险评估中的不确定性分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
P. Vanrolleghem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Verdonck;A. Souren;M. V. van Asselt;P. V. Van Sprang;P. Vanrolleghem
摘要当前欧洲联盟(欧盟)对新物质和现有物质的风险评估中的不确定性处理存在问题，原因有几个。主要考虑了已知的或可量化的不确定性来源。不确定性没有充分、明确地传达给风险经理和决策者，而是隐藏和隐藏在看似确定的风险商数字中，因此产生了一种虚假的确定性和保护感。欧盟新的化学政策立法REACH是一个学习跨学科思维的机会，以演变为智能风险评估：一种评估，在评估中，利用对不确定性的认识和开放来更好地描述和评估风险。在明智的风险评估背景下，量化不确定性不是目的，而只是改进评估或为所涉问题找到替代解决方案的有效手段。给出了如何区分、评估和使用不确定度的指导和实例。
Abstract Handling uncertainty in the current European Union (EU) risk assessment of new and existing substances is problematic for several reasons. The known or quantifiable sources of uncertainty are mainly considered. Uncertainty is insufficiently, explicitly communicated to risk managers and decision makers but hidden and concealed in risk quotient numbers that appear to be certain and, therefore, create a false sense of certainty and protectiveness. The new EU chemical policy legislation, REACH, is an opportunity to learn from interdisciplinary thinking in order to evolve to smart risk assessment: an assessment in which awareness and openness to uncertainty is used to produce better characterizations and evaluations of risks. In a smart risk assessment context, quantifying uncertainty is not an aim but just a productive means to refine the assessment or to find alternative solutions for the problem at stake. Guidance and examples are given on how to differentiate, assess, and use uncertainty.