Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1722334116
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发表时间：
2019-01-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Raftery, Adrian E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Azose, Jonathan J.;Raftery, Adrian E.
我们提出了一种估计所有成对国家之间的移民流动的方法，该方法允许将移民分解为移民、返回和过境部分。目前对双边移民流动的最新估计依赖于全球移民数量尽可能少的假设。我们放宽了这一假设，对所有国家间的移民流动进行了完整的估计，并对全球移民总数进行了真实的估计。我们发现，自1990年以来，国际移民的总人数在每5年占全球人口的1.13%到1.29%之间波动。回返移徙和过境移徙是总移徙的一大部分；大约四个移徙事件之一是返回一个人的出生国。在最近一段时间内，我们估计从美国到中美洲和南美洲以及从波斯湾到南亚的回返移民人数特别多。
We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-theart estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual's country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.