Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain
Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2016.35.54
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发表时间：
2016-12-21
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Steele, Fiona
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ermisch, John;Steele, Fiona
背景人们在选择居住地点时可能会考虑家庭规模的预期变化。但是，在事件历史框架中估计预期事件对当前转变的影响具有挑战性，因为必须以某种方式衡量预期，并且与过去生育的指标一样，预期未来的生育可能与住房决策有关。目的本研究的目的是估计家庭规模的预期变化如何影响英国的居住流动，以应对这些挑战。方法我们使用来自成熟的 18 波面板调查（英国家庭面板调查）的纵向数据，该调查包含生育率的直接衡量标准期望。统计方法在我们的估计和测试框架中考虑到了预期的潜在内生性。结果我们提供的证据与以下观点一致：过去的生育主要通过对未来生育的预期影响居住流动性，而不是直接通过家庭中的孩子数量。但反应却存在异质性。特别是，生育预期对流动成本较低的女性（例如私人租户）的流动性影响更大。结论我们的估计表明，预期未来生育一个（另一个）孩子会使搬家的概率平均增加约 0.036，而我们样本中的平均流动率为每年 0.14。贡献我们的贡献是将对未来事件的预期纳入住宅流动的经验模型。我们还揭示了生育如何影响行动能力。
BACKGROUNDIt is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions.OBJECTIVEThe objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges.METHODSWe use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework.RESULTSWe produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants.CONCLUSIONSOur estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother) child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample.CONTRIBUTIONOur contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.