Same-Day Mode Choice Modeling with Household Vehicle Usage Simulation in Developing Countries
Same-Day Mode Choice Modeling with Household Vehicle Usage Simulation in Developing Countries
复制标题
发展中国家家庭车辆使用模拟的当日模式选择建模
DOI：
10.3141/2239-04
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Jun Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xia Wan;Y. Zhang;P. Jin;B. Ran;W. Wang;Jun Chen
本文提出了一个发展中国家在家庭层面上的当天模式选择模型。一个基于规则的算法结合经典的随机效用最大化理论的微观仿真框架内使用。由于发展中国家普遍存在车辆不足的问题，因此，私人车辆使用（包括家庭车辆分配和共享使用）的建模是该模型的重要组成部分。该模型由四个步骤组成：（a）家庭中私人车辆（汽车、摩托车和自行车）的分配，（B）第一步中指定的私人车辆使用者的模式选择，（c）家庭中的车辆共享，以及（d）不使用私人车辆的个人的模式选择。通过对汽车、摩托车和自行车使用情况的仿真，提高了模型的适应性。本文通过不同的建模方法，捕捉了有无私家车家庭成员出行方式选择行为的差异性。该模型综合运用了基于规则的算法、二项logit模型、多项logit模型和混合logit模型。以2007年蚌埠市旅游日记调查数据为例，对模型进行了验证。结果表明，该模型能够以内部自洽且理论可信的方式准确预测中国中等城市所有家庭成员的出行方式选择。该模型对交通需求预测和交通政策制定具有重要的指导意义。
This paper presents a model of same-day mode choice at the household level for developing countries. A rule-based algorithm combining classical random utility maximization theory within a microsimulation framework is used. Modeling of private vehicle usage (including vehicle allocation and sharing use in household) is an essential component of this model because vehicle deficiency is common in developing countries. This model consists of four steps: (a) the allocation of private vehicles (car, motorcycle, and bicycle) in a household, (b) the mode choice of private vehicle users specified in the first step, (c) vehicle sharing in a household, and (d) the mode choice of individuals who do not use private vehicles. The adaptability of the model was improved by simulations on car, motorcycle, and bicycle usage. Discrepancies in the mode choice behavior of household members with and without the use of private vehicles are captured in this paper through different modeling methods. The rule-based algorithm, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and mixed logit model were applied together in this four-step model. Travel diary survey data from 2007 from Bengbu, China, were used as an example for the validation test of this model. The results demonstrate that this model can accurately predict the mode choice of all household members in an internally self-consistent and theoretically credible manner for a midsize city in China. The proposed model is highly conducive to travel demand forecasting and transportation policy making.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Transportation Research Record (印刷中)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fujiwara;A.;Zhang;J.
通讯作者：
J.