Changes incontact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Changes incontact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abb8001
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发表时间：
2020-06-26
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Yu, Hongjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Juanjuan;Litvinova, Maria;Yu, Hongjie
中国采取了强有力的非药物干预措施来阻止 2019 年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。随着其他国家传播的加剧，年龄、接触模式、社交距离、感染易感性和 COVID-19 动态之间的相互作用仍不清楚。为了回答这些问题，我们分析了疫情爆发前和爆发期间武汉和上海的接触者调查数据以及湖南省的接触者追踪信息。在 COVID-19 社交距离期间，日常接触减少了七到八倍，大多数互动仅限于家庭。我们发现，0 至 14 岁的儿童比 15 至 64 岁的成人更不易感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2)（比值比 0.34，95% 置信区间 0.24 至 0.49），而 65 岁以上的个体更容易感染（比值比 1.47，95% 置信区间 1.12 至 0.49）。 1.92）。根据这些数据，我们建立了一个传播模型来研究社交距离和学校停课对传播的影响。我们发现，仅中国在疫情爆发期间实施的社交距离措施就足以控制 COVID-19。尽管主动关闭学校本身并不能阻断传播，但可以将高峰发病率降低 40% 至 60%，并延缓疫情的传播。
Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic.