Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty-first century
Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty-first century
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00001.x
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发表时间：
2003-03-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Demeny, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Demeny, P
在1922年出版的《西方的没落》一书中，德国历史学家奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒大胆地做出了一项长期的人口预测。他写道，在文明发展的最后阶段，欧洲人作为个体仍然高度珍视生命，但人口的集体延续性已不再受到重视。一场可怕的人口减少已经开始，并将持续几个世纪。这本书在当时极具影响力；如今却在很大程度上被人遗忘。但是，许多国家当前的人口变化尽管仍处于公众意识的边缘，却必然会使即将到来的人口下降问题在未来几年变得更加紧迫。在生育率处于前所未有的低水平的欧洲，这些变化需要特别关注。接下来，我将讨论欧洲人口困境所固有的政治和社会问题。
In his 1922 BOOK, The Decline of the West, the German historian Oswald Spengler ventured a long-range demographic prediction. In the unfolding final cycle of their civilization, he wrote, Europeans, as individuals, still set high store on life. But the collective continuity of populations was no longer valued. An appalling depopulation was beginning that would continue for centuries.The book in its time was highly influential; today it is largely forgotten. But current demographic changes in many countries, while still at the periphery of public consciousness, are bound to lend the issue of impending population decline a new urgency in the years to come. In Europe, which has been experiencing unprecedentedly low levels of fertility, these changes demand special attention. in what follows, I discuss political and social problems inherent in Europe's demographic predicament.