Empirical Study of Risk Assessment and Allocation of Public-Private Partnership Projects in China
Empirical Study of Risk Assessment and Allocation of Public-Private Partnership Projects in China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000049
复制
发表时间：
2011-07-01
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Ke, Yongjian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan, Albert P. C.;Yeung, John F. Y.;Ke, Yongjian
早期关于PPP的研究表明，客观、可靠、实用的PPP项目风险评估模型和公平的各方风险分配机制是PPP项目成功实施的关键。然而，在这一研究领域的实际实证研究工作有限。本文报告了一项研究的第一阶段，旨在识别和评估中国PPP项目交付的主要风险，并解决私营部门和公共部门之间适当的风险分配问题。通过实证问卷调查，考察PPP项目中不同风险因素的相对重要性，并分析风险因素对不同参与方的分配情况。共发放问卷580份，获得有效回复105份用于数据分析。实证结果表明，中国PPP项目面临的三个最重要的风险因素是：(1)政府干预；(2)政府腐败；(3)糟糕的公共决策过程。这些发现表明，中国政府的干预和腐败可能是PPP项目在中国取得成功的主要障碍。造成这些风险的主要原因可能是中国PPP项目的立法和监管体系效率低下。通过对105个调查对象进行Mann-Whitney U检验，实证结果表明，中国私营部门和公共部门对所有34个风险因素的认知并没有显著差异。同样，除了学术界人士认为政府腐败问题比工业界人士更为严重之外，学术界人士和工业界人士之间也没有显著差异。对于风险分配，实证结果表明，公共和私营部门对所识别的大多数风险的看法是一致的。公共部门倾向于接受的主要风险属于系统风险范畴，尤其是政治、法律和社会风险。私营部门倾向于保留特定项目风险类别内的主要风险，特别是建设、运营和关系风险，以及系统风险类别内的经济风险。剩下的风险，即环境风险，最好由两个部门共同承担。本研究使国际建筑公司能够更好地了解如何评估和分配中国PPP项目的风险。并协助中国未来PPP项目的风险应对规划和控制。DOI: 10.1061 /(陈纯)me.1943 - 5479.0000049。(C) 2011美国土木工程师学会。
Earlier research studies on public-private partnership (PPP) indicated that an objective, reliable, and practical risk assessment model for PPP projects and an equitable risk allocation mechanism among different parties are crucial to the successful implementation of these PPP projects. However, actual empirical research works in this research area are limited. This paper reports the first stage of a research study, which aims to identify and assess the principal risks for the delivery of PPP projects in China and to address their proper risk allocation between the private and public sectors. An empirical questionnaire survey was designed to examine the relative importance of different risk factors and to analyze the allocation of risk factors to different parties in PPP projects. A total of 580 questionnaires were sent out, and a total of 105 valid responses were obtained for data analysis. The Mann-Whitney U test is employed to investigate whether significant difference in perception existed first between the private and public sectors and second between industrial practitioners and academics in China. The empirical findings show that the three most important risk factors for PPP projects in China are (1) government intervention; (2) government corruption; and (3) poor public decision-making processes. These findings reveal that the Chinese government intervention and corruption may be the major obstacles to the success of PPP projects in China. A major cause for these risks may be attributed to inefficient legislative and supervisory systems for PPP projects in China. After conducting the Mann-Whitney U test on the 105 survey respondents, the empirical findings indicate that the perceptions of all 34 risk factors in China between the private and public sectors were not significantly different. Similarly, there were no significant differences between academics and industrial practitioners except that the former perceived the problem of government corruption to be more severe than did the latter. For risk allocation, the empirical results indicate that the public and private sectors were in general consensus with most of the risks identified. The major risks that the public sector preferred to accept are within the systematic risk category, especially political, legal, and social risks. The private sector preferred to retain the principal risks within the specific project risk category, especially construction, operation, and relationship risks, in addition to economic risks within systematic risk category. The remaining risk, environment risk, is preferred to be shared between the two sectors. This research study enables international construction companies to better understand how risks should be assessed and allocated for PPP projects in China. It also assists in risk response planning and control for future PPP projects in China. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000049. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.