A new look at departure time choice equilibrium models with heterogeneous users
A new look at departure time choice equilibrium models with heterogeneous users
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异构用户出发时间选择均衡模型的新视角
DOI：
10.1016/j.trb.2021.04.003
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
and Shunsuke Hayashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takashi Akamatsu;Kentaro Wada;Takamasa Iryo;and Shunsuke Hayashi
本文件旨在研究2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）重点防护策略的社会可接受性和可行性。我们提出了一个控制计划，以发展群体免疫力，同时满足以下两个基本要求的一个可行的政策选择。第一个要求是社会可接受性：为了社会可接受性，应尽量减少总体死亡人数。第二是可行性：医疗体系不应不堪重负，以避免各种不利影响。为了利用疾病严重程度随着年龄和合并症而显著增加的事实，我们假设对那些高风险个体实施了一些有针对性的保护措施，并且疾病不会在高风险人群中传播。由于受保护人群的严重性比率高于未受保护人群，因此保护措施可以大大降低整个人群的死亡率，并避免医疗保健系统的崩溃。基于一个简单的易感-感染-康复模型，将所提出的策略的社会可接受性和可行性归纳为两个易于计算的条件。所提出的框架可应用于各种人群，以研究针对COVID-19的群体免疫策略的可行性。对于日本，如果疾病的严重程度比以前报告的值小1/10，尽管预计死亡率与季节性流感一样高，但拟议的方案可能会产生群体免疫。
This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid various adverse effects. To exploit the fact that the disease severity increases considerably with age and comorbidities, we assume that some focused protection measures for those high-risk individuals are implemented and the disease does not spread within the high-risk population. Because the protected population has higher severity ratios than the unprotected population by definition, the protective measure can substantially reduce mortality in the whole population and also avoid the collapse of the healthcare system. Based on a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, social acceptability and feasibility of the proposed strategy are summarized into two easily computable conditions. The proposed framework can be applied to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the proposed scheme ifand the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.