A probabilistic framework for offshore wind turbine loss assessment
A probabilistic framework for offshore wind turbine loss assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.043
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发表时间：
2020-03
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
D. Wilkie;C. Galasso
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Wilkie;C. Galasso
海上风力涡轮机(OWT)在其使用寿命内，可能会暴露在严重的风暴中，导致OWT结构(和子结构)受到极大的风和波浪载荷。本文建议使用概率风险建模框架来量化与暴露在极端风浪中的OWT相关的财务损失，作为评估海上风电场(OWF)弹性的第一步。拟议的建模框架包括一些新的要素：1)建立特定地点的脆弱性关系(即，在一系列灾害强度范围内，自有设备遭受不同程度损害的可能性)，适当考虑结构能力和需求方面的不确定性；2)采用基于组合系统可靠性方法的封闭形式技术，评估结构和非结构部件的故障后果(例如，财务损失)；3)协调处理整个框架内的认知不确定性(例如，脆弱性估计中的抽样变异性)，提供考虑估计不确定性的损失结果。这些方面可以在结构脆弱性和风险方面对各种设计解决方案进行更多信息的比较，和/或改进对决策的概率损失的评估。对两个案例研究站点的说明性应用作为拟议框架中的计算步骤的简化演练，讨论了可能的结果。例如，说明性应用的结果表明，结构组件在OWT的总体风险分布中起着重要作用，但这取决于现场特定的风浪条件。损失的计算为更详细地评估OWT和OWF的复原力提供了基础。
During their operational life, offshore wind turbines (OWTs) may be exposed to severe storms, resulting in extreme wind and wave loading acting on the OWT structure (and substructure). This paper proposes quantifying financial losses associated with an OWT exposed to extreme wind and waves using a probabilistic risk modelling framework, as a first step towards evaluating offshore wind farm (OWF) resilience. The proposed modelling framework includes a number of novel elements: 1) the development of site-specific fragility relationships (i.e., likelihood of different levels of damage experienced by an OWT over a range of hazard intensities), properly accounting for uncertainties in both structural capacity and demands; 2) the implementation of a closed-form technique, based on a combinatorial system reliability approach, to assess failure consequences (e.g., financial loss) for both structural and non-structural components; 3) a coherent treatment of epistemic uncertainties across the framework (e.g., sampling variability in fragility estimation), providing loss results accounting for uncertainty of estimation. These aspects can allow for more informative comparisons of various design solutions in terms of structural fragility and risk and/or for an improved evaluation of probabilistic losses for decision making. An illustrative application to two case-study sites is presented as a simplified walk-through of the calculation steps in the proposed framework, discussing possible outcomes. For instance, the results from the illustrative application indicate that the structural components play an important role in the overall risk profile of an OWT, but this depends on the site-specific wind and wave conditions. The calculation of losses provides a foundation from which a more detailed assessment of OWT and OWF resilience could be developed.