Investigating spatiotemporal dynamics and synchrony of influenza epidemics in Australia: An agent-based modelling approach
Investigating spatiotemporal dynamics and synchrony of influenza epidemics in Australia: An agent-based modelling approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.simpat.2018.07.005
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Prokopenko, Mikhail
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cliff, Oliver M.;Harding, Nathan;Prokopenko, Mikhail
在这篇文章中，我们介绍了ACEMod，一个基于代理的建模框架，用于研究澳大利亚的流感流行。该模拟器旨在分析全国范围内传染病的时空传播和流感的空间同步性。基于个人的流行病学模型考虑了来自2006年澳大利亚人口普查和其他国家数据来源的流动(工人和学生通勤)模式和人类互动。这种高精度的模拟包括1980万随机生成的软件代理，并在几个尺度上跟踪流感病毒感染和传播的动态。使用这种方法，我们能够综合澳大利亚不同暴发地点和严重程度的流行病。对于每一种情况，我们通过发病率曲线、流行脉搏和流行病同步性，定性和定量地调查这些流行病的时空分布。这一分析说明了澳大利亚境内流感大流行的性质，并有助于未来规划有效的干预、缓解和危机管理战略。
In this paper we present ACEMod, an agent-based modelling framework for studying influenza epidemics in Australia. The simulator is designed to analyse the spatiotemporal spread of contagion and influenza spatial synchrony across the nation. The individual-based epidemiological model accounts for mobility (worker and student commuting) patterns and human interactions derived from the 2006 Australian census and other national data sources. The high-precision simulation comprises 19.8 million stochastically generated software agents and traces the dynamics of influenza viral infection and transmission at several scales. Using this approach, we are able to synthesise epidemics in Australia with varying outbreak locations and severity. For each scenario, we investigate the spatiotemporal profiles of these epidemics, both qualitatively and quantitatively, via incidence curves, prevalence choropleths, and epidemic synchrony. This analysis exemplifies the nature of influenza pandemics within Australia and facilitates future planning of effective intervention, mitigation and crisis management strategies.