Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO 2
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO 2
复制标题
协调北大西洋表面 CO 2 的观测和模型趋势
DOI：
10.1029/2019gb006186
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lebehot A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lebehot A
北大西洋是一个大气CO2吸收强烈的区域。为了评估近几十年来这种CO2汇的演变，已经使用了各种方法来估计来自不规则采样的原位CO2观测的全流域吸收。到目前为止，缺乏与基于观测的填补空白方法相关的强大不确定性，限制了验证气候模型模拟海洋表层CO2浓度的能力。在使用观测数据和模型数据对全流域和每年变化的插值不确定性进行稳健量化后，我们发现北大西洋表层海洋CO2逸度（fCO 2 −ocean）的增长速度明显低于1992-2014年期间最新一代地球系统模型模拟的速度。我们进一步表明，与初始化的模型模拟，这些模型无法捕捉观测到的趋势在表面fCO 2-ocean主要是由于模型的海洋地球化学的偏见。我们的研究结果意味着，目前的预测可能低估了北大西洋的贡献，以减轻未来大气CO2浓度的增加。
The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of intense uptake of atmospheric CO2. To assess how this CO2sink has evolved over recent decades, various approaches have been used to estimate basin‐wide uptake from the irregularly sampled in situ CO2observations. Until now, the lack of robust uncertainties associated with observation‐based gap‐filling methods required to produce these estimates has limited the capacity to validate climate model simulated surface ocean CO2concentrations. After robustly quantifying basin‐wide and annually varying interpolation uncertainties using both observational and model data, we show that the North Atlantic surface ocean fugacity of CO2(fCO2−ocean) increased at a significantly slower rate than that simulated by the latest generation of Earth System Models during the period 1992–2014. We further show, with initialized model simulations, that the inability of these models to capture the observed trend in surfacefCO2−oceanis primarily due to biases in the models' ocean biogeochemistry. Our results imply that current projections may underestimate the contribution of the North Atlantic to mitigating increasing future atmospheric CO2concentrations.