The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions
The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wenz, Leonie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalkuhl, Matthias;Wenz, Leonie
我们提出了一个新的数据集的次国家经济产出，地区生产总值（GRP），超过1500个地区在77个国家，使我们能够经验估计历史上的气候影响在不同的时间尺度。采用年度面板模型，长期差异回归和横截面回归，我们确定生产率水平和生产率增长的影响。我们没有找到永久性增长率影响的证据，但我们发现了有力的证据表明，温度对生产力水平有很大影响。到世纪末，全球平均地表温度上升约3.5摄氏度，将使2100年全球产量减少7-14%，热带和贫困地区的损失甚至更大。用我们的估计更新DICE损害函数表明，温度引起的生产力损失的碳社会成本在2020年约为73-142$/tCO（2），到2030年将上升到92-181$/tCO（2）。这些数字不包括非市场损失和极端天气事件或海平面上升造成的损失。(c)2020年，任作家。爱思唯尔公司出版
We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5 degrees C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142$/tCO(2) in 2020, rising to 92-181$/tCO(2) in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. (c) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.