SCoVMod - a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
SCoVMod - a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
复制标题
DOI：
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17716.1
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
背景资料：流动性限制可防止感染传播至无疾病地区，而在2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行初期，一旦发现遏制局部疫情不足以控制传播，大多数国家就立即对流动性实施严格限制。这些限制对经济和人类健康的其他方面产生不利影响，量化其影响对于评估其未来价值非常重要。 研究方法：在这里，我们开发了苏格兰冠状病毒传播模型（SCoVMod），这是苏格兰COVID-19的模型，由于其地理和人口条件的多样性，这带来了不寻常的挑战。我们的拟合模型捕捉到的时空模式的死亡率在第一阶段的流行病，以一个良好的地理尺度。 结果：我们发现，锁定限制降低了传输率下降到估计的12%，其预锁定率。我们发现，虽然COVID-19限制的时间会影响传播率对COVID相关死亡人数的作用，但早期减少长途移动不会。然而，与贫困相关的健康状况不佳与死亡率有相当大的关联;考虑到所有死亡都发生在护理院之外，与健康相关的贫困程度最高的理事会地区的死亡率是与健康相关的贫困程度最低的理事会地区的2.45倍。 结论：我们发现，即使在早期流行病与穷人的情况下查明，一个有用的空间显式模型可以适合有意义的参数的基础上的时空分布的死亡计数。我们简单的方法是有用的，从战略上研究旅行相关的限制和物理距离之间的权衡，以及剥夺相关因素对结果的影响。
Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.