Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia
Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia
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DOI：
10.3390/w9060410
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发表时间：
2017-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Pankaj Kumar;Y. Masago;B. Mishra;S. Jalilov;A. R. Emam;M. Kefi;K. Fukushi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pankaj Kumar;Y. Masago;B. Mishra;S. Jalilov;A. R. Emam;M. Kefi;K. Fukushi
对未来气候变化和社会经济发展下的不安全状况进行建模对于水资源的适应性规划和可持续管理是必不可少的。本案例研究旨在评估雅加达省内 Ciliwung 河流域当前和不久的将来的水质和水量状况，在不同情景下使用人口增长和当地总体规划中提到的到 2030 年计划额外的废水管理基础设施，并将上述条件与气候变化的影响进行比较。模拟水生生态系统健康的三个重要指标生化需氧量（BOD）、化学需氧量（COD）和硝酸盐（NO3）来评估河流污染情况。模拟结果表明，即使考虑到规划中的废水管理基础设施，由于人口增长和气候变化，2030 年的水质将比 2000 年基准年进一步恶化。人口增长的影响程度远远大于气候变化的影响。 NO3、BOD和COD的模拟值范围分别为6.07～13.34 mg/L、7.65～11.41 mg/L和20.16～51.01 mg/L。几乎所有的水质参数都超过了适合健康水生系统的安全限值，特别是2030年。由于来自上游未经处理的污染物的迁移以及当地倾倒的累积效应，下游采样地点的水质状况更糟。这一结果将有助于地方决策者和水务部门的利益相关者制定未来的战略和适应性政策和计划。潜在的政策干预措施之一是优先实施国家综合污水处理和化粪池管理计划，考虑人口密度和增长等各种因素，以及短期和长期措施的全球变化。
Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate (NO3), the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.