A Preindustrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along the Atlantic Coast of North America
A Preindustrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along the Atlantic Coast of North America
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl085814
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发表时间：
2020-02-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Berk, K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gehrels, W. R.;Dangendorf, S.;Berk, K.
哈特拉斯角以北的北美大西洋沿岸被认为是世纪末海平面上升的“热点”。在这里，我们测试，使用盐沼代理海平面记录，如果这个海岸经历了增强的海平面上升，在早期的几十年，百年期间。虽然我们发现与先前的研究一致，即20世纪的海平面变化率高于前几个世纪的变化率，但18世纪的海平面上升率仅略低，这表明“热点”是至少三个世纪的重复特征。北美（冰岛）的代理海平面记录与北大西洋涛动的百年变化呈负（正）相关。它们与北极冰融化的海平面“指纹”是一致的，因此我们假设海平面波动与北极陆地冰量的变化有关。对未来海平面上升的预测应考虑到海平面自然变化的长期波动率。
The Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras has been proposed as a "hotspot" of late 20th century sea-level rise. Here we test, using salt-marsh proxy sea-level records, if this coast experienced enhanced sea-level rise over earlier multidecadal-centennial periods. While we find in agreement with previous studies that 20th century rates of sea-level change were higher compared to rates during preceding centuries, rates of 18th century sea-level rise were only slightly lower, suggesting that the "hotspot" is a reoccurring feature for at least three centuries. Proxy sea-level records from North America (Iceland) are negatively (positively) correlated with centennial changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. They are consistent with sea-level "fingerprints" of Arctic ice melt, and we therefore hypothesize that sea-level fluctuations are related to changes in Arctic land-ice mass. Predictions of future sea-level rise should take into account these long-term fluctuating rates of natural sea-level change.