Accounting for indirect land-use change in the life cycle assessment of biofuel supply chains
Accounting for indirect land-use change in the life cycle assessment of biofuel supply chains
复制标题
在生物燃料供应链的生命周期评估中考虑间接土地利用变化
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2011.0769
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Rick Malpas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Susan Tarka Sanchez;Jeremy Woods;M. Akhurst;Matthew Brander;Michael O'Hare;Terence P. Dawson;Robert Edwards;A. Liska;Rick Malpas
用于作物生产的土地的扩大造成各种直接和间接温室气体排放，以及其他经济、社会和环境影响。我们分析了使用生命周期分析（LCA）估计间接土地利用变化（ILUC）的生物燃料生产的碳强度。两种方法进行了批评：直接，归因生命周期分析和相应的生命周期分析（CLCA）。一个建议的混合“组合模型”的两种方法的ILUC分析依赖于第一次定义的系统边界所产生的完整的LCA。然后就建模方法（经济平衡或因果）、数据输入、土地面积分析、碳储存核算和不确定性分析作出选择。我们的结论是，CLCA是适用于估计的历史排放量从ILUC，虽然改进的混合方法，再加上定期更新，是必需的，不确定值必须得到充分的代表，但是，范围和深度的扩展所需的系统边界CLCA仍然存在争议。此外，对于未来作物产量的动态和高度不确定性以及减少毁林和鼓励植树造林政策的有效性，仍然没有强有力的预测、监测和核算框架。最后，如果要避免这些市场之间的严重扭曲，这将减少其在政策结果中的应用，那么迫切需要在美国，欧盟，东南亚，非洲，巴西和其他主要生物燃料贸易集团之间建立兼容和可比的ILUC会计框架。
The expansion of land used for crop production causes variable direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and other economic, social and environmental effects. We analyse the use of life cycle analysis (LCA) for estimating the carbon intensity of biofuel production from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Two approaches are critiqued: direct, attributional life cycle analysis and consequential life cycle analysis (CLCA). A proposed hybrid ‘combined model’ of the two approaches for ILUC analysis relies on first defining the system boundary of the resulting full LCA. Choices are then made as to the modelling methodology (economic equilibrium or cause–effect), data inputs, land area analysis, carbon stock accounting and uncertainty analysis to be included. We conclude that CLCA is applicable for estimating the historic emissions from ILUC, although improvements to the hybrid approach proposed, coupled with regular updating, are required, and uncertainly values must be adequately represented; however, the scope and the depth of the expansion of the system boundaries required for CLCA remain controversial. In addition, robust prediction, monitoring and accounting frameworks for the dynamic and highly uncertain nature of future crop yields and the effectiveness of policies to reduce deforestation and encourage afforestation remain elusive. Finally, establishing compatible and comparable accounting frameworks for ILUC between the USA, the European Union, South East Asia, Africa, Brazil and other major biofuel trading blocs is urgently needed if substantial distortions between these markets, which would reduce its application in policy outcomes, are to be avoided.