Changes in Glacier Mass Balance in Watershed of Sary Jaz-Kumarik Rivers of Tianshan Mountains in 1957—2006 and Their Impact on Water Resources and Trend to End of the 21th Century
Changes in Glacier Mass Balance in Watershed of Sary Jaz-Kumarik Rivers of Tianshan Mountains in 1957—2006 and Their Impact on Water Resources and Trend to End of the 21th Century
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发表时间：
2009
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通讯作者：
Wang Shun-de
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作者：
Wang Shun-de
沙里贾兹-库马里克河流域谢赫水文站(阿克苏河、中国)以上流域面积12816平方公里，其中冰川面积3 195.41平方公里，占流域面积的25%。冰川径流约895 mm，河流径流381.3 mm。冰川融化贡献了谢赫勒水文站总径流量的58.65%，因此冰川融水变化对水资源的影响至关重要。1957-2006年年均径流量为48^×108m~3。自1993年以来，年平均径流量急剧增加。年平均径流量增加10.56亿m~3,1994-2006年比1957-1993年增加23%。由于过去积累了大量的冰川融化，据初步计算，物质平衡损耗增加了309×47×108m~3，增加了6.19×108m~3，约占过去50年气候变暖导致的年径流量的13%。1957-1993年冰川融化补给量为5.3×108m~3，占年均径流量的11%；1994-2006年冰川融化补给量为8.8×108m~3，占年均径流量的18%。随着气候变暖，虽然降水量增加，但冰川对温度的敏感性增强，冰川融化水量将继续增加。假设未来冰川地区气温上升4℃，降水量增加25 mm，年均径流量为662×108m~3，比1960~1990年增加19.75×108m~3，增幅为43%，比1991年~2006年增加11.75×108m~3和22%。
The drainage area is 12 816 km2 above Shehel Hydrological Station(Aksu River,China) in Sary Jaz -Kumarik River Basin in which glacier area occupies 25% with an area of 3 195.41 km2. The Glacier runoff is about 895 mm,river runoff is 381^3 mm. Ice melt contributed about 58^65% of the total runoff in the Shehel hydrological Station,so the effects of changes in glacier meltwater on water resources is very vital. The mean annual runoff is 48^64×108 m3 in the period of 1957—2006. The mean annual runoff is increasing dramatically since 1993. The mean annual runoff increased by 10^56×108 m3,also is 23% in 1994—2006 than one in 1957—1993. As a result of a large number of glacier ice melting which were accumulated in the past,by preliminary calculations,mass balance wastages supply additionally 309^47×108 m3,an increase of 6^19×108 m3,about 13% of annual runoff to the river due to climate warming in the past 50 years. The supply additionally of glacier melt is 5^3×108 m3,and occupies 11% of the mean annual river runoff in 1957—1993,and is 8^8×108 m3 and 18% in 1994—2006. With climate warming,although precipitation increasing,glaciers is more sensitive to temperature,the glacial meltwater will be increasing continually.To presume a little change in glacier area in the future,the temperature rise 4 ℃,precipitation increased by 25 mm in 2071—2100,an average annual runoff will be 66^2 × 108 m3,which increases by 19^75 ×108 m3 and the rate of increase is 43% than 1960—1990,and increases by 11^75×108 m3 and 22% than 1991—2006.