Analysis of Work-Zone Crashes Using the Ordered Probit Model with Factor Analysis in Egypt
Analysis of Work-Zone Crashes Using the Ordered Probit Model with Factor Analysis in Egypt
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DOI：
10.1155/2018/8570207
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发表时间：
2018-10
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Kairan Zhang;M. Hassan;M. Yahaya;Shupeng Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kairan Zhang;M. Hassan;M. Yahaya;Shupeng Yang
工作区由于其性质，容易受到危险情况的影响。这是在车辆交通附近或附近进行建筑工程所致。暴露在危险中突出表明，需要对工作区域事故的发生以及与之相关的风险因素有适当的了解。本文的主要目的是开发一种结合因子分析方法和有序概率模型的混合方法来对工作区碰撞进行综合分析。本文分析了2010年至2015年在埃及长期公路养护和恢复项目中发生的工区数据崩溃。因子分析用于确定影响工作区碰撞的主要和共同因素，并计算每个因素的权重。基于因素分析得分的结果，建立了有序概率模型，以检验共同因素对工作区严重程度的贡献。对作业区撞车事故影响最大的因素是天气状况、车道关闭次数、路面结构类型、道路性质、星期几等。此外，结果表明，四个共同因素显著影响埃及工作区事故的严重程度。
Work-zones, due to their nature, are predisposed to hazardous situations. This is a consequence of conducting construction work within the vicinity of, or near, vehicular traffic. The exposure to danger underscores the need for proper understanding of the occurrence of work-zone crashes, as well as the risk factors associated with them. This paper aims mainly to develop a hybrid approach that combines a factor analysis method and an ordered probit model to carry out a comprehensive analysis of work-zone crashes. The paper presents an analysis of work-zone data crashes from 2010 to 2015 that occurred in Egyptian long-term highway maintenance and rehabilitation projects. Factor analysis is used to identify the main and common factors that influence work-zone crashes and to calculate the weight of every factor. The ordered probit model is developed, based on the results of factor analysis scores, to examine the contribution of common factors in the severity of work-zones. The most influential factors that have contributed to work-zone crashes are weather condition, number of lane closures, type of surface construction, road character, day of week, and so forth. In addition, the results indicated that four common factors are significantly affecting the severity of work-zone crashes in Egypt.