Large shifts in pathogen virulence relate to host population structure
Large shifts in pathogen virulence relate to host population structure
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1088542
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发表时间：
2004-02-06
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Sasaki, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boots, M;Hudson, PJ;Sasaki, A
关于毒力进化的理论通常预测通过权衡传播和/或恢复来选择最佳毒力水平。在这里，我们考虑获得长期免疫力并生活在空间结构群体中的宿主中病原体毒力的演变。我们从理论上证明，由于宿主的局部接触或社会种群结构引起的进化动力学双稳定性，病原体种群中可能会发生毒力的大幅变化。该模型为兔出血性疾病病毒高毒株的迅速出现提供了解释。
Theory on the evolution of virulence generally predicts selection for an optimal level of virulence determined by trade-offs with transmission and/or recovery. Here we consider the evolution of pathogen virulence in hosts who acquire long-lived immunity and live in a spatially structured population. We show theoretically that large shifts in virulence may occur in pathogen populations as a result of a bistability in evolutionary dynamics caused by the local contact or social population structure of the host. This model provides an explanation for the rapid emergence of the highly virulent strains of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus.