New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate : The Case for the Chinese Renminbi
New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate : The Case for the Chinese Renminbi
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均衡汇率的新估计:以人民币为例
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01444.x
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhaoyong Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sato;Kiyotaka;Junko Shimizu;Nagendra Shrestha;Zhaoyong Zhang
我们估计了1995 - 2009年人民币对美元的名义均衡汇率。虽然最近关于EER的大多数实证研究都采用了跨国分析，但在估计EER时没有充分考虑具体国家的因素，特别是供应方的真实的因素。为了更好地反映亚洲区域内贸易增长背景下的中国加工出口，我们通过构建1995 - 2009年的年度新国际投入产出（IIO）表，将进口价格和中间投入品投入系数的来源国细分数据纳入实证分析。结果表明，2006 - 2009年人民币名义汇率升值幅度较大，表明人民币汇率被严重低估，到2008年人民币汇率应比2004年升值74%。名义EER的大幅升值与2000年代中期以来中国经常账户盈余的大幅增加相对应，特别是对美国，这归因于中国中间投入系数的显著改善，以及美国中间投入进口价格的上涨。
We estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB)vis‐à‐visthe US dollar from 1995 to 2009. While most of the recent empirical studies on the EER employ a cross‐country analysis, country‐specific factors, especially supply‐side real factors, are not fully taken into consideration in estimating the EER. To better reflect China’s processing exports in the context of growing intra‐regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source‐country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International input–output (IIO) table for the period from 1995 to 2009. The results show that the nominal EER of the RMB appreciates sharply from 2006 to 2009, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 74 per cent as of 2008 compared to the year 2004 level. Such sharp appreciation of the nominal EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in China’s current account surplus from the mid‐2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of China’s intermediate input coefficients and, to a lesser extent, an increase in US import prices of intermediate inputs.