The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data
The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data
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DOI：
10.3847/1538-3881/abc418
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Zamudio, Khadeejah A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bryson, Steve;Kunimoto, Michelle;Zamudio, Khadeejah A.
基于开普勒DR25候选行星目录和基于盖亚的恒星特性，我们提出了在主序矮星宜居带（HZs）中岩石行星的发生率。我们提供了第一个根据恒星相关的安装通量进行的分析，这使我们能够跟踪HZ行星。我们将eta（圆+）定义为半径在0.5到1.5 r -圆之间的行星加上有效温度在4800到6300 K之间的轨道恒星的HZ发生率。我们发现保守HZ的eta（圆加）在每颗恒星0.37(-0.21)(+0.48)（误差反映68%可信区间）和0.60(-0.36)（+0.90）颗行星之间，而乐观HZ的发生率在每颗恒星0.58(-0.33)（+0.73）和0.88(-0.51)（+1.28）颗行星之间。这些界限反映了两种极端的假设，即在DR25完备性数据可用的轨道周期之外的完备性外推。巨大的不确定性是由于探测到的小HZ行星数量很少。我们发现使用泊松似然贝叶斯分析和使用近似贝叶斯计算之间的发生率相似。我们的结果更正目录的完整性和可靠性。行星的完整性和出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还提供了不同恒星群和行星大小范围的发生率。我们以95%的置信度估计，平均而言，G和K矮星周围最近的HZ行星与太阳的距离大约为6%，而在距离太阳10%的G和K矮星周围有大约4 HZ的岩石行星。
We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define eta(circle plus) as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R-circle plus orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that eta(circle plus) for the conservative HZ is between 0.37(-0.21)(+0.48) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60(-0.36)(+0.90) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58(-0.33)(+0.73) and 0.88(-0.51)(+1.28) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is similar to 6 pc away and there are similar to 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.