Russian Gas Imports in Europe: How Does Gazprom Reliability Change the Game?
Russian Gas Imports in Europe: How Does Gazprom Reliability Change the Game?
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俄罗斯天然气在欧洲的进口：俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的可靠性如何改变游戏规则？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Proost
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Morbée;S. Proost
在2006年和2009年俄罗斯和乌克兰发生天然气冲突后，欧洲对俄罗斯天然气进口的依赖一直是政治担忧的主题。本文评估了俄罗斯不可靠对欧洲天然气市场的潜在影响，以及它如何影响欧洲的天然气进口战略。我们还研究了欧洲应该在多大程度上投资战略天然气储存能力，以减轻俄罗斯可能不可靠的影响。欧洲天然气进口市场被描述为俄罗斯与其他一些（更可靠的）边缘出口国之间的差异化竞争。结果表明，俄罗斯的合同数量和价格作为不可靠性的函数显著下降，因此，如果俄罗斯的不可靠性增加，不仅欧洲而且俄罗斯也会受到影响。对欧洲来说，以溢价从更可靠的供应商那里购买天然气，通常比建设战略天然气储存能力更有吸引力。
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports has been the subject of increasing political concern after gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2009. This paper assesses the potential impact of Russian unreliability on the European gas market, and how it affects European gas import strategy. We also study to what extent Europe should invest in strategic gas storage capacity to mitigate the effects of possible Russian unreliability. The European gas import market is described by differentiated competition between Russia and a - more reliable - competitive fringe of other exporters. The results show that Russian contract volumes and prices decline significantly as a function of unreliability, so that not only Europe but also Russia suffers if Russia’s unreliability increases. For Europe, buying gas from more reliable suppliers at a price premium turns out to be generally more attractive than building strategic gas storage capacity.