Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output
Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output
复制标题
金融危机对劳动生产率、资本和产出的长期和短期影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Maria Sebastia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Oulton;Maria Sebastia
自2008年初经济衰退爆发以来，英国劳动生产率的表现令人困惑。经济衰退开始四年多来，劳动生产率仍低于之前的峰值水平。本文考虑了经济能力可能因金融危机而永久受损的假设。一个模型对 1955 年至 2010 年间 61 个国家的小组进行了估计，该模型允许金融危机对劳动生产率增长率产生短期影响，并对其水平产生长期影响。主要发现是，莱因哈特和罗格夫所定义的银行危机，在危机持续的每一年，平均每年都会降低劳动生产率的短期增长率 0.6 到 0.7 之间，长期水平则降低 0.84 到 1.1 之间（取决于估计方法）。银行危机还会使每个工人的长期资本水平平均降低约 1。对人均 GDP 的影响大约是对人均 GDP 影响的两倍，因为从长远来看，对就业率有负面影响。
The behaviour of labour productivity in the United Kingdom since the onset of the recessionin early 2008 constitutes a puzzle. Over four years after the recession began labourproductivity is still below its previous peak level. This paper considers the hypothesis thateconomic capacity can be permanently damaged by financial crises. A model which allows afinancial crisis to have both a short-run effect on the growth rate of labour productivity and along-run effect on its level is estimated on a panel of 61 countries over 1955-2010. The mainfinding is that a banking crisis as defined by Reinhart and Rogoff on average reduces theshort-run growth rate of labour productivity by between 0.6 and 0.7 per year and thelong-run level by between 0.84 and 1.1 (depending on the method of estimation), foreach year that the crisis lasts. A banking crisis also reduces the long-run level of capital perworker by an average of about 1. The effect on GDP per capita is about double the effecton GDP per worker since there is a long-run, negative effect on the employment ratio.