Prediction of the Distribution of Alpine Tree Species Under Climate Change Scenarios: Larix chinensis in Taibai Mountain (China)
Prediction of the Distribution of Alpine Tree Species Under Climate Change Scenarios: Larix chinensis in Taibai Mountain (China)
复制标题
气候变化情景下高山树种分布预测：太白山落叶松（中国）
DOI：
10.3161/15052249pje2016.64.2.005
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发表时间：
2016-10
影响因子：
0.5
通讯作者：
Yan Boqian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao Xiaojiong;Meng Haoxian;Wang Weihong;Yan Boqian
摘要 落叶松（Larix chinensis）是一种濒临灭绝的特有高山树种，生长于中国秦岭太白山。该物种对气候变化极其敏感，因此预测其未来分布非常重要。利用高分辨率遥感影像和Maxent模型，分析了IPCC A2和IPCC B2两种气候变化情景下羊草的当前分布并预测了未来的分布。结果表明，影响羊草地理分布的3个主要气候因子是年平均气温、最冷季平均气温和最湿月降水量。目前，羊草主要集中在海拔3100m处，面积53.52km2。南坡人口约是北坡人口面积的两倍；模型模拟表明，在A2和B2两种气候变化情景下，适宜栖息地的面积将不断减少；场景A2的下降更为明显，场景A2的范围约为场景B2的两倍。在这两种情况下，中华羊草首先会在低海拔地区被灭绝，而该物种的适宜栖息地将迁移到太白山等海拔较高的地区。
ABSTRACT Larix chinensis, an endangered and endemic alpine tree, occurs on Mt. Taibai in the Qinling Mountains, China. The extreme sensitivity of this species to climate change makes predicting its future distribution important. Using high-resolution remote-sensing imagery, and the Maxent model, we analysed the current distribution and forecast future distribution of L. chinensis under two climate change scenarios, IPCC A2 and IPCC B2. The results showed that three dominant climatic factors influenced the geographic distribution of L. chinensis: mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of wettest month. Currently, L. chinensis mainly concentrated at 3100 m and covers an area of 53.52 km2. The population on the southern slope covers approximately twice the area of that on the northern slope; the model simulations indicated that the area of suitable habitat would decrease continually under two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2; the decrease was more obvious in scenario A2, and the range in scenario A2 covers approximately twice the area of that in scenario B2. Under both scenarios, L. chinensis would first be extirpated at lower elevations, and the suitable habitat of this species would move to higher elevations in the Taibai Mountains.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Xiao Ya-ping
通讯作者：
Xiao Ya-ping
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1991
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
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S. Nilsson;D. Pitt
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Journal of Wuhan Botanical Research
影响因子：
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作者：
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W. Jianguo
影响因子：
13.5
作者：
C. Wright;A. Gallant
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C. Wright;A. Gallant
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2000-10
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
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N. Nakicenovic;J. Alcamo;Ged Davis;B. Vries;J. Fenhann;S. Gaffin;K. Gregory;A. Grubler;T. Jung-T