Public perceptions of the health risks of extreme heat across US states, counties, and neighborhoods
Public perceptions of the health risks of extreme heat across US states, counties, and neighborhoods
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1813145116
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发表时间：
2019-04-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Leiserowitz, Anthony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Howe, Peter D.;Marlon, Jennifer R.;Leiserowitz, Anthony
极端高温是美国与天气相关的主要死亡原因。然而，许多人未能意识到这种风险，而全球变暖将加剧这种风险。鉴于对个人身体和社会脆弱性的认识是应对极端天气事件的重要前提，了解美国人对热风险的看法及其地理差异对于促进热浪期间的适应行为至关重要。我们使用包含 9,217 名受访者的大型原始调查数据集，创建并验证了美国人在美国所有 50 个州、3,142 个县和 72,429 个人口普查区的极端高温对其健康造成的感知风险的模型。气候温暖的州（例如德克萨斯州、内华达州和夏威夷）的高温风险感知最高，而气候凉爽的州往往面临更大的高温健康风险。同样，人口老龄化的地方更容易受到高温对健康的影响，他们的风险认知往往较低，这使他们面临更大的风险，因为缺乏认识是适应性反应的障碍。较贫困的社区和少数族裔人口较多的社区通常比白人居民较多的富裕社区具有更高的风险认知，这与这些人群的脆弱性差异一致。极端天气风险、暴露和影响的综合模型应考虑到激发行为的个人认知。了解精细空间尺度的风险认知还可以支持将沟通和教育举措瞄准最需要热适应工作的地方。
Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. Many individuals, however, fail to perceive this risk, which will be exacerbated by global warming. Given that awareness of one's physical and social vulnerability is a critical precursor to preparedness for extreme weather events, understanding Americans' perceptions of heat risk and their geographic variability is essential for promoting adaptive behaviors during heat waves. Using a large original survey dataset of 9,217 respondents, we create and validate a model of Americans' perceived risk to their health from extreme heat in all 50 US states, 3,142 counties, and 72,429 populated census tracts. States in warm climates (e.g., Texas, Nevada, and Hawaii) have some of the highest heat risk perceptions, yet states in cooler climates often face greater health risks from heat. Likewise, places with older populations who have increased vulnerability to health effects of heat tend to have lower risk perceptions, putting them at even greater risk since lack of awareness is a barrier to adaptive responses. Poorer neighborhoods and those with larger minority populations generally have higher risk perceptions than wealthier neighborhoods with more white residents, consistent with vulnerability differences across these populations. Comprehensive models of extreme weather risks, exposure, and effects should take individual perceptions, which motivate behavior, into account. Understanding risk perceptions at fine spatial scales can also support targeting of communication and education initiatives to where heat adaptation efforts are most needed.