Predictions of skin cancer incidence in the Netherlands up to 2015
Predictions of skin cancer incidence in the Netherlands up to 2015
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2133.2005.06386.x
复制
发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Coebergh, JWW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Vries, E;van de Poll-Franse, LV;Coebergh, JWW
皮肤癌是一个重要的，日益严重的公共卫生问题，在白色高加索人，目的预测2015年前荷兰皮肤癌的发病率。方法通过对黑色素瘤和鳞状细胞癌（SCC）的观察率进行趋势建模，计算2015年荷兰皮肤癌的预期发病率。从荷兰癌症登记处获得的1989年至2000年之间的比率，以及从埃因霍温癌症登记处获得的基底细胞癌（BCC）的比率;然后将这些比率乘以预测的年龄分布。发病率拟合到四个不同的模型，预测的基础上最好的拟合model.Results皮肤癌患者的总数增加80%，预计在荷兰：从2000年的20 654到37 342在2015年。黑色素瘤病例总数预计将增加99%，男性增加最多（35-64岁男性，111%; ≥ 65岁男性，139%）。SCC患者数量将总体增加80%，主要是老年男性和女性（增加79%）以及35-64岁的女性（增加93%）。BCC病例数将增加78%，其中年龄在15-64岁的合并组增加最多（男性，增加66%;女性，增加94%），尤其是头部和颈部以外的部位。人口变化（老龄化效应）的贡献是最大的男性BCC和SCC（35-44%）。结论如果在荷兰皮肤癌的发病率继续增加，人口增长和老龄化仍然有增无减，每年的护理需求上升超过5%，可能会发生，全科医生和皮肤科医生的沉重负担。在目前紫外线照射没有明显变化的情况下，这种增加可能会在2015年之后继续下去。
Background Skin cancer is an important, growing public health problem among white caucasians, causing a heavy burden on dermatologists and general practitioners.Objectives To predict the future incidence of skin cancer in the Netherlands up to 2015.Methods Expected numbers of skin cancer cases in the Netherlands up to 2015 were calculated by trend modelling of observed rates for melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) between 1989 and 2000 obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) obtained from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry; these rates were then multiplied by the predicted age distributions. Incidence rates were fitted to four different models, and predictions were based on the best fitting model.Results An increase of 80% in the total number of skin cancer patients is expected in the Netherlands: from 20 654 in 2000 to 37 342 in 2015. The total number of melanoma cases is expected to increase by 99%, with the largest increase for males (males aged 35-64, 111%; males aged >= 65, 139%). Numbers of patients with SCC will increase overall by 80%, mainly among older males and females (increase of 79%) and females aged 35-64 (increase of 93%). The number of cases of BCC will increase by 78%, with the largest increase for the combined groups, those aged 15-64 (males, 66% increase; females, 94% increase), especially for sites other than the head and neck. The contribution of demographic changes (ageing effect) was largest for males with BCC and SCC (35-44%).Conclusion If incidence rates for skin cancers in the Netherlands continue to increase and population growth and ageing remain unabated, a rise in annual demand for care of more than 5% could occur, putting a heavy burden on general practitioners and dermatologists. In the absence of marked changes in current ultraviolet radiation exposure, these increases will probably continue after 2015.