The Runoff Declining Process and Water Quality in Songhuajiang River Catchment, China under Global Climatic Change
The Runoff Declining Process and Water Quality in Songhuajiang River Catchment, China under Global Climatic Change
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DOI：
10.1002/clen.201100212
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发表时间：
2012-04
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Xingmin Mu;Ying Li;P. Gao;H. Shao;Fei Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xingmin Mu;Ying Li;P. Gao;H. Shao;Fei Wang
世纪后半期，松花江流域径流量呈减少趋势。利用1959 ~ 2002年42个雨量站的逐日降雨资料和1953 ~ 2005年5个气象站的逐日径流资料，对1959 ~ 2002年的逐日降雨资料和1953 ~ 2005年的逐日径流资料进行了分析。采用MannKendall趋势检验和MannKendall序贯检验方法，对降雨量和径流量的月趋势和年趋势进行检验，确定径流量突变的起始点，并识别径流量突变的主要驱动因子。结果表明，该流域降雨量增加趋势不明显，但径流量呈明显减少趋势。对于五个气象站，径流量的突然下降发生在1957 - 1963年和20世纪90年代中期。通过MannKendall比较两个减少期的降雨量和径流量，发现人类活动是径流减少的主要驱动因素，而不是气候变化。土地利用/覆被变化分析表明，在嫩江流域所有土地利用/覆被变化中，耕地与径流量下降的相关性最大。从1986年到1995年，耕地面积从699万hm 2迅速增加到761万hm 2。水利工程对第二松花江流域径流量的衰减有重要影响。第二松花江上游修建了许多大型水库和水电站，导致径流量减少。嫩江和第二松花江是松花江干流的两个源头。这两个子流域的径流量减少，导致松花江流域干流径流量减少。因此，高比例的农业用地和水利工程是松花江流域径流减少的最可能驱动因素。
The runoff in Songhuajiang River catchment has experienced a decreasing trend during the second half of the 20th century. Serially complete daily rainfall data of 42 rainfall stations from 1959 to 2002 and daily runoff data of five meteorological stations from 1953 to 2005 were obtained. The MannKendall trend test and the sequential version of MannKendall test were employed in this study to test the monthly and annual trends for both rainfall and runoff, to determine the start point of abrupt runoff declining, and to identify the main driving factors of runoff decline. The results showed an insignificant increasing trend in rainfall but a significant decreasing trend in runoff in the catchment. For the five meteorological stations, abrupt runoff decline occurred during 19571963 and the middle 1990s. Through MannKendall comparisons for the area-rainfall and runoff for the two decreasing periods, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. Analysis of land use/cover shows that farmland is most related with runoff decline among all the land use/cover change in Nenjiang catchment. From 1986 to 1995, the area of farmland increased rapidly from 6.99 to 7.61 million hm2. Hydraulic engineering has a significant influence on the runoff decline in the second Songhuajiang catchment. Many large-scale reservoirs and hydropower stations have been built in the upstream of the Second Songhuajiang and lead to the runoff decline. Nenjiang and the Second Songhuajiang are the two sources of mainstream of Songhuajiang. Decreased runoff in these two sub-catchments then results in runoff decrease in mainstream of Songhuajiang catchment. It is, therefore, concluded that high percent agricultural land and hydraulic engineering are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in Songhuajiang River catchment, China.