Using species distribution models to optimize vector control in the framework of the tsetse eradication campaign in Senegal
Using species distribution models to optimize vector control in the framework of the tsetse eradication campaign in Senegal
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1407773111
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发表时间：
2014-07-15
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Bouyer, Jeremy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dicko, Ahmadou H.;Lancelot, Renaud;Bouyer, Jeremy
采采蝇是撒哈拉以南非洲人类和动物锥虫病的媒介，也是泛非采采蝇和锥虫根除运动（PATTEC）的目标。Glossina palpalis gambiensis（双翅目：Glossinidae）是一个河流物种，仍然存在于塞内加尔的尼亚耶斯地区作为一个孤立的集合种群。它是一项全国性根除运动的目标，该运动结合了基于经杀虫剂处理的目标和牛的人口减少阶段和基于昆虫不育技术的根除阶段。在这项研究中，我们使用物种分布模型来优化控制操作。我们比较了G. p. gambiensis和栖息地适宜性，分别使用正则化逻辑回归和Maxent。两个模型都表现良好，曲线下面积分别为0.89和0.92。只有Maxent模型正确预测了基于专家的景观分类。因此，Maxent预测在整个根除运动中使用的Niayes，使控制操作更有效的部署ITTs，释放不育男性的密度，和位置的监测陷阱用于评估计划的进展。我们讨论了模型的结果如何告知在目标区域的舌蝇的特定生态。Maxent预测允许在我们的项目中优化效率和成本，并且可能对PATTEC框架内的其他采采蝇控制活动以及更普遍的其他媒介或昆虫害虫控制计划有用。
Tsetse flies are vectors of human and animal trypanosomoses in sub-Saharan Africa and are the target of the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC). Glossina palpalis gambiensis (Diptera: Glossinidae) is a riverine species that is still present as an isolated metapopulation in the Niayes area of Senegal. It is targeted by a national eradication campaign combining a population reduction phase based on insecticide-treated targets (ITTs) and cattle and an eradication phase based on the sterile insect technique. In this study, we used species distribution models to optimize control operations. We compared the probability of the presence of G. p. gambiensis and habitat suitability using a regularized logistic regression and Maxent, respectively. Both models performed well, with an area under the curve of 0.89 and 0.92, respectively. Only the Maxent model predicted an expert-based classification of landscapes correctly. Maxent predictions were therefore used throughout the eradication campaign in the Niayes to make control operations more efficient in terms of deployment of ITTs, release density of sterile males, and location of monitoring traps used to assess program progress. We discuss how the models' results informed about the particular ecology of tsetse in the target area. Maxent predictions allowed optimizing efficiency and cost within our project, and might be useful for other tsetse control campaigns in the framework of the PATTEC and, more generally, other vector or insect pest control programs.