Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression
Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression
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DOI：
10.1080/02678373.2017.1395926
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Guthier, Christina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dormann, Christian;Owen, Mikaela;Guthier, Christina
当实验不合理时，纵向研究是实证工作和压力研究的黄金标准。通常，使用量表来评估风险因素及其后果，并估计交叉滞后效应以确定可能的风险。目前尚不存在将交叉滞后效应转化为风险比率以促进风险评估的方法，这在心理和流行病学工作压力研究之间造成了分歧。本文的目的是展示如何利用交叉滞后效应来评估组织中不同水平的社会心理安全氛围（PSC）的风险比，这是抑郁症发展的重要社会心理风险。我们使用澳大利亚工作场所晴雨表 (N=1905) 的可用纵向证据来估计 PSC 对抑郁症的交叉滞后影响。我们应用连续时间建模来获得时间可扩展的交叉效应。这些在为期 4 年的蒙特卡罗模拟中得到了进一步研究，并将其转化为 4 年的事故率。发病率是根据临床相关的 2 年抑郁期来确定的。我们建议 PSC=26 的临界值（对应于 -1.4 SD），这表明与 4 年期间 PSC 的平均水平相比，4 年期间持续性抑郁症的发病率增加了 100% 以上。
Longitudinal studies are the gold standard of empirical work and stress research whenever experiments are not plausible. Frequently, scales are used to assess risk factors and their consequences, and cross-lagged effects are estimated to determine possible risks. Methods to translate cross-lagged effects into risk ratios to facilitate risk assessment do not yet exist, which creates a divide between psychological and epidemiological work stress research. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate how cross-lagged effects can be used to assess the risk ratio of different levels of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) in organisations, an important psychosocial risk for the development of depression. We used available longitudinal evidence from the Australian Workplace Barometer (N=1905) to estimate cross-lagged effects of PSC on depression. We applied continuous time modelling to obtain time-scalable cross effects. These were further investigated in a 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, which translated them into 4-year incident rates. Incident rates were determined by relying on clinically relevant 2-year periods of depression. We suggest a critical value of PSC=26 (corresponding to -1.4 SD), which is indicative of more than 100% increased incidents of persistent depressive disorder in 4-year periods compared to average levels of PSC across 4 years.