Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia
Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.024
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Zwiers, Francis W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Flower, Aquila;Murdock, Trevor Q.;Zwiers, Francis W.
在快速变化的气候下，世界上许多森林可能面临多重压力。因此，了解气候变化对树种适宜性的影响对于森林管理规划和政策制定至关重要。我们以不列颠哥伦比亚省的道格拉斯冷杉和云杉(白云杉、恩格尔曼云杉和内云杉)森林为例进行研究。使用适用于物种位置记录稀少的地区的灵活生物气候包络模型，评估了预测的气候变化对这些森林的影响。对模型结果的分析侧重于量化由于全球气候模型、排放情景和气候数据的空间分辨率之间的差异而产生的不确定性。为此，未来的适宜性是使用从10个气候预测的集合中缩减的气候数据来建模的，这些气候预测的样本来自9个不同的全球气候模型和3个不同的排放情景(A2、A1B和B1)。所有预测都表明，云杉和道格拉斯冷杉的适宜性迅速向相对于它们当前范围的更高海拔和纬度转移。然而，在这些变化的速度、程度和精细细节方面，预测之间存在重大差异。这项研究是由科学家和资源管理人员共同参与的跨学科协作评估的一部分。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Many of the world's forests are likely to face multiple stresses under a rapidly changing climate. Understanding the impact of climate change on tree species suitability is therefore crucial for forest management planning and policy development. We use the Douglas-fir and spruce (white spruce, Engelmann spruce, and interior spruce) forests of British Columbia as a case study. The impact of projected climate change on these forests was assessed using flexible bioclimatic envelope models appropriate for areas with sparse species locations records. Analysis of the model results focused on quantifying uncertainty due to differences between global climate models, emissions scenarios, and spatial resolution of climate data. To this end, future suitability was modelled using downscaled climate data from a collection of 10 climate projections that sampled across nine different global climate models and three different emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1). All projections indicate a rapid shift in suitability for both spruce and Douglas-fir to higher elevations and latitudes relative to their current range. However, significant differences exist between the projections with regard to the pace, extent, and fine-scale details of these changes. This research was conducted as part of a collaborative interdisciplinary assessment involving both scientists and resource managers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.