Steering the future. The emergence of “Western” futures research and its production of expertise, 1950s to early 1970s
Steering the future. The emergence of “Western” futures research and its production of expertise, 1950s to early 1970s
复制标题
引领未来。“西方”期货研究的出现及其专业知识的产生，20 世纪 50 年代至 70 年代初。
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Seefried
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Seefried
本文论述了1945年后《期货研究》的兴起及其对未来专业知识的产生。期货研究(或期货研究/未来学)领域是在20世纪50年代和60年代西欧和美国的知识流通过程中形成的概念。这些思考、预测和规划未来的方法主要来自控制论(如系统分析)领域的新方法。更重要的是，期货研究为政策制定和战略规划提供了专业知识。由于科学技术的动态变化和凯恩斯主义的突破，20世纪60年代标志着西欧和美国政治规划的鼎盛时期。本文旨在分析20世纪60年代在政府和行政管理中使用的未来专门知识的形式和特点。它将侧重于西德期货研究及其对联邦政府的咨询作用，但也将考虑到跨国知识转让和比较方面。这篇论文将表明，20世纪60年代期货研究的主要流派明确地相信，他们将能够使用“现代”和理性的方法来规划和控制未来。这在一定程度上导致了方向盘的兴奋。然而，在20世纪70年代初，这种信心破灭了。造成这种情况的一个原因是，在利用政府未来的专业知识方面出现了巨大的问题。
This article deals with the emergence of Futures Research after 1945 and its production of future expertise. The field of futures research (or futures studies/futurology) was conceptualised in a process of circulating knowledge in Western Europe and the USA during the 1950s and 1960s. These approaches to thinking about, forecasting and planning the future drew their arsenal of new methods largely from the field of cybernetics (such as Systems Analysis). What is more, futures research produced expertise for policy development and strategic planning. As a result of the dynamic changes in science and technology and the breakthrough of Keynesianism, the 1960s symbolized the high time of political planning in Western Europe and the USA. The paper aims to analyse the forms and character of future expertise utilized in government and administration during the 1960s. It will focus on West German futures research and its advisory role for the Federal Government but will also take transnational transfers of knowledge and comparative aspects into account. The paper will show that major strands of futures research of the 1960s were explicitly confident that they would be able to plan and control the future by using “modern” and rational methods. This led partly to a euphoria of steering. In the early 1970s, however, this confidence was shattered. One reason for this were dramatic problems in utilizing future expertise in government.