Air quality, health, and climate implications of China's synthetic natural gas development
Air quality, health, and climate implications of China's synthetic natural gas development
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1703167114
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发表时间：
2017-05-09
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Mauzerall, Denise L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qin, Yue;Wagner, Fabian;Mauzerall, Denise L.
面对严重的空气污染和对天然气进口的日益依赖，中国政府计划增加煤基合成天然气（SNG）的产量。虽然用SNG取代煤炭有利于空气质量，但会增加二氧化碳排放。由于各部门的空气污染物和CO2排放因子以及能源效率存在差异，煤炭与SNG的替代导致不同程度的空气质量效益和气候惩罚。我们估计了2020年SNG替代战略对空气质量、人类健康和气候的影响。在住宅部门使用所有SNG产品导致每年减少约32，000（20，000至41，000）例与室外空气污染相关的过早死亡，范围由健康风险的低和高估计值确定。如果室内/家庭空气污染的变化也包括在内，则下降幅度会大得多。在住宅部门部署SNG导致过早死亡率分别比在工业或电力部门部署SNG减少近10倍和60倍。由于目前家庭煤炭使用效率低下，与工业或电力部门相比，在住宅部门使用SNG仅导致20%至30%的碳惩罚。即使以今天的技术在SNG生产中使用碳捕获和储存，SNG的二氧化碳排放量也比相同数量的传统天然气高出22%至40%。在我们评估的SNG部署策略中，将目前计划的SNG分配给家庭提供了最大的空气质量和健康效益，碳排放量最小。
Facing severe air pollution and growing dependence on natural gas imports, the Chinese government plans to increase coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG) production. Although displacement of coal with SNG benefits air quality, it increases CO2 emissions. Due to variations in air pollutant and CO2 emission factors and energy efficiencies across sectors, coal replacementwith SNG results in varying degrees of air quality benefits and climate penalties. We estimate air quality, human health, and climate impacts of SNG substitution strategies in 2020. Using all production of SNG in the residential sector results in an annual decrease of similar to 32,000 (20,000 to 41,000) outdoor-air-pollutionassociated premature deaths, with ranges determined by the low and high estimates of the health risks. If changes in indoor/ household air pollution were also included, the decrease would be far larger. SNG deployment in the residential sector results in nearly 10 and 60 times greater reduction in premature mortality than if it is deployed in the industrial or power sectors, respectively. Due to inefficiencies in current household coal use, utilization of SNG in the residential sector results in only 20 to 30% of the carbon penalty compared with using it in the industrial or power sectors. Even if carbon capture and storage is used in SNG production with today's technology, SNG emits 22 to 40% more CO2 than the same amount of conventional gas. Among the SNG deployment strategies we evaluate, allocating currently planned SNG to households provides the largest air quality and health benefits with the smallest carbon penalties.