Modelling tourism resilience in small island states: a tale of two countries
Modelling tourism resilience in small island states: a tale of two countries
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/14616688.2020.1750684
复制
发表时间：
2020-04-21
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Skeete, Ryan W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper F.;Skeete, Ryan W.
自然灾害、全球经济危机、气候变化和社会政治动荡的发生率和后果不断上升，提高了人们对复原力的兴趣，特别是在小岛屿经济体。这些小岛屿国家面积小，对旅游业的高度依赖，使它们更容易受到这种破坏的影响。因此，了解抵御冲击的复原力或适应能力，对于这些国家的可持续发展至关重要。新出现的文献使用自适应周期模型定性分析通过旅游目的地的演变的弹性。然而，由于缺乏使用适应性周期模型的定量研究，因此，就促进重建更强大的旅游业所需的干预范围和规模向决策者提供充分咨询意见是一项艰巨的任务。因此，我们率先使用马尔可夫转换自回归模型来测试该模型的适用性，使用四十年的数据，在两个加勒比目的地，巴巴多斯和格林纳达的游客抵达。研究结果揭示了两国旅游业尚未利用的转型和复兴机会，但突出了两国旅游业复原能力的鲜明对比。格林纳达表现出更强的复原力，因为其不利冲击虽然更深，但相对短暂，而巴巴多斯尽管经历的外部冲击较少，但面临全球衰退的长期影响。对于小岛屿国家，我们的结论是，影响较低的弹性的因素是行业的管理缺陷，利益相关者之间的凝聚力不足，缺乏创新。总体而言，研究结果为依赖旅游业的经济体提供了一个建模框架，以确定它们从重大压力事件中恢复的速度，加强旅游业复原力所需的相关战略以及旅游业创新的潜力。
The rising incidence and consequences of natural disasters, global economic crises, climate change, and socio-political upheavals have raised interest in resilience, particularly in small island economies. Their small size and high tourism-dependency make these small island states more vulnerable to such disruptions. Hence, understanding resilience or adaptive capacity to withstand shocks is fundamental to their sustainable development. The emerging literature uses the Adaptive Cycle Model to qualitatively analyse resilience through the evolution of tourism destinations. Nevertheless, the absence of quantitative studies using the Adaptive Cycle Model makes it a daunting task to adequately advise policymakers about the scope and scale of intervention necessary to facilitate the rebuilding of a stronger tourism industry. We, therefore, pioneer the use of Markov Switching Autoregressive Model to test the model's applicability using four decades of data on tourist arrivals in two Caribbean destinations, Barbados and Grenada. The results reveal untapped opportunities for transformation and regeneration in both countries' tourism industries, but highlight sharp contrast in their resilience capability. Grenada exhibits greater resilience as its adverse shocks, though deeper, are relatively transitory, while Barbados despite experiencing fewer external shocks faces prolonged repercussions from global recessions. For small islands, we conclude that the factors impacting lower resilience are the industry's management deficiencies, inadequate cohesion among stakeholders, and lack of innovation. Overall, the findings present a modelling framework for tourism-dependent economies to determine how quickly they recover from major stress events, the associated strategies necessary to strengthen tourism resilience, and the potential to innovate in the tourism industry.