Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2013-202449
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Eggen, Bernd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hajat, Shakoor;Vardoulakis, Sotiris;Eggen, Bernd
气候变化预计将影响公众健康的最直接方式涉及与暴露于环境温度相关的死亡率的变化。全世界许多国家每年都发生与当前天气模式有关的与炎热和寒冷有关的死亡。未来的气候变化可能会改变这些风险。估计未来可能的健康影响，这种变化是必要的，以告知公共卫生政策对气候变化在英国和其他地方。方法时间序列回归分析被用来解释目前的温度与死亡率的关系，由地区和年龄组。然后将这些应用于当地气候和人口预测，以估计到2020年代，2050年代和2080年代英国与温度有关的死亡人数。更大的变化，在未来的温度，以及在平均levels的变化modeled.Results一个显着增加的风险，热相关和冷相关的死亡率在所有地区观察。老年人的风险最大。在人口没有任何适应的情况下，预计到21世纪50年代，与热有关的死亡人数将从目前每年约2000人死亡的基线增加约257%，与寒冷有关的死亡人数将从约41000人死亡的基线下降2%。冷负荷在所有时期都高于热负荷。未来温度相关的死亡人数增加的部分原因是预计人口增长和老龄化。结论从炎热的天气健康保护将变得越来越必要，并采取措施，以减少寒冷的影响，也将继续在英国的重要。预计本世纪的人口变化意味着老年人的健康保护将至关重要。
Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.