The Behavior of Public External Debt in Pakistan: A Financial Macroeconomic Analysis
The Behavior of Public External Debt in Pakistan: A Financial Macroeconomic Analysis
复制标题
巴基斯坦公共外债行为：金融宏观经济分析
DOI：
10.18999/forids.28.201
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
A. Waheed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Waheed
同许多其他发展中国家一样，巴基斯坦是一个负债累累的低收入国家，在偿还外债方面面临严重困难。本文分析了巴基斯坦公共外债的行为，并评估了控制其增长的替代政策措施的有效性。本研究特别关注资金流动框架中的资源缺口，并构建了巴基斯坦的金融宏观经济模型。然后，该模型被用来制定一项中期战略，以便在今后五年结束时大幅减轻公共外债的负担。在八个政策模拟中，结果表明，增加出口、增加税收、降低债券利率、降低贷款利率和货币贬值，在减少外债和使外债达到可持续水平方面似乎都非常显着。研究还发现，进一步下调国内存款利率、银行利率和存款准备金率对公共债务可持续性的影响不那么显着。这项研究的结论是，持续的政府政策改革和健全的债务管理对于摆脱当前的外债问题至关重要。
Like many other developing countries Pakistan is a highly indebted low‑income country and is facing serious hardships in external debt servicing. This paper analyzes the behavior of public external debt in Pakistan and assesses the effectiveness of alternative policy measures to control its growth. The study particularly focuses on resource gap in a flow of funds framework and constructs a financial macroeconomic model of Pakistan. The model is then used to develop a medium term strategy to reduce the burden of public external debt significantly by the end of the next five years. Among the eight policy simulations the results indicate that increase in exports increase in taxes reduction in bond rate reduction in lending rate and devaluation of the currency appear to be very significant in reducing foreign borrowing and bringing the external debt to sustainable levels. The study also found that further reduction in domestic deposit rate bank rate and required reserve ratio has less significant effects on public debt sustainability. The study concludes that continued government policy reforms and sound debt management are essential for getting out of the current external debt problem.