Contrasting Responses of Midlatitude Jets to the North Pacific and North Atlantic Warming
Contrasting Responses of Midlatitude Jets to the North Pacific and North Atlantic Warming
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl082550
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发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
S. Matsumura;Satoaki Ueki;T. Horinouchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Matsumura;Satoaki Ueki;T. Horinouchi
中纬度大气环流预计将向极地移动，但北半球急流移动却不存在。热带和北极变暖之间相互竞争的热力学响应对喷流有相反的影响，并增加了未来预估的不确定性。然而，这项研究表明，中纬度的海表温度（SST）变暖是未来中纬度急流的主要驱动因素。耦合模式比对计划第5阶段模式显示中纬度海洋海温增温不同，导致北太平洋急流减弱和北大西洋急流向极地移动。我们的大气模式实验能够量化北极、中纬度和热带变暖的相对作用。中纬度和热带变暖的竞争效应在未来中纬度急流中发挥了重要作用，阻碍了北太平洋急流的任何极移，而对于北大西洋急流来说，中纬度海温变暖可能会赢得竞争。
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation is projected to shift poleward, yet the Northern Hemisphere jet shift is absent. Competing thermodynamic responses between tropical and Arctic warming have opposing influences on the jets and increase the uncertainties in future projections. This study shows, however, that sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the midlatitude is a major driver for the future midlatitude jet. Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 models indicate different SST warming between the midlatitude oceans, which induces a weakening of the North Pacific jet and a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet. Our atmospheric model experiments enable to quantify the relative roles of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical warming. The competing effects of midlatitude and tropical warming play a substantial role in the future midlatitude jet, hindering any poleward shift of the North Pacific jet, whereas for the North Atlantic jet, midlatitude SST warming is likely to win the competition.