Progress in ocean wave forecasting
Progress in ocean wave forecasting
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jcp.2007.04.029
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发表时间：
2008-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Janssen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Janssen
本文介绍了海浪预报的基本规律：能量平衡方程。能量平衡方程给出了由平流等绝热过程、风产生海浪的物理源函数、白顶的耗散和非线性四波相互作用引起的海况变化率。本文讨论了物理源函数的表达式，并讨论了用于求解能量平衡方程的数值格式（特别强调了所谓的花园洒水器效应）。通过比较不同年份的海浪预报结果与浮标观测结果，说明海浪预报技术的提高。最后，对极端事件预报的新发展进行了展望。
Progress in ocean wave forecasting is described in the context of the fundamental law for wave prediction: the energy balance equation. The energy balance equation gives the rate of change of the sea state caused by adiabatic processes such as advection, and by the physical source functions of the generation of ocean waves by wind, the dissipation due to white-capping and the nonlinear four-wave interactions. In this paper we discuss the formulation of the physics source functions and we discuss the numerical scheme that is used to solve the energy balance equation (with special emphasis on the so-called Garden-Sprinkler effect). Improvement in ocean wave forecasting skill is illustrated by comparing forecasts results with buoy observations for different years. Finally, the promising new development of the forecasting of extreme events is discussed as well.