Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA
Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05684.x
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Bradley, Bethany A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bradley, Bethany A.
全球变化对生态系统保护构成重大挑战。在区域尺度上，气候变化可能导致物种分布的广泛变化和广泛的灭绝或灭绝。在景观尺度上，土地利用和入侵物种破坏了生态系统功能，减少了物种丰富度。然而，由于缺乏空间上明确的生态系统风险模型，科学很难为保护规划和土地管理提供信息。在这里，我的模型风险山艾（蒿属）。气候变化、土地利用/土地覆盖变化和物种入侵对美国内华达州生态系统的影响。气候变化的风险是基于10个大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCM）的预测应用于两个生物气候包络模型（Mahalanobis距离和Maxent）的集合。从土地利用的风险是基于道路，农业和电力线的分布，并在内华达州的土地利用和概率的cheatgrass雀麦tectorum入侵之间的空间关系。土地覆盖变化的风险是基于概率和程度的松树-杜松（松树monophylla;杜松属）。林地扩张气候变化最有可能对目前分布范围边缘的山艾树生态系统产生负面影响，特别是在内华达州南部、犹他州南部和华盛顿东部。来自土地使用和林地扩张的风险在整个内华达州普遍存在，而作弊草入侵在该州的北方地区问题最大。累积起来，这些变化构成了重大的挑战，保护山艾树和山艾树专性物种。这种类型的生态系统风险综合评估为管理者提供了对于保护规划至关重要的空间明确工具。
Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper (Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.