A Synthetic Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes
A Synthetic Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes
复制标题
墨西哥湾飓风的综合模型
DOI：
10.2523/20699-ms
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James Stear
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Vickery;D. Wadhera;James Stear
本文描述了墨西哥湾飓风综合模型的发展，用于建立设计准则。该模式是根据1940年至2006年的大气和历史飓风数据，以及1984年至2006年的涡旋数据推导出来的。明确考虑了海温和混合层深度对风暴强度的影响。通过将10万年模拟结果与历史风暴数据进行比较，验证了该模式。利用该模型得出的30万年的风暴，估计了墨西哥湾的风标准，其回归周期长达1万年，并与从现场平均历史数据推断的传统方法的结果进行了比较。这一努力代表了工业界传统上制定飓风标准的方式的逐步改变。合成飓风模型可以提高飓风设计标准的稳定性，并为产生罕见（1000至10000年）现场条件的风暴类型提供更多的见解。除了为飓风设计标准提供更稳定的基础外，该综合模型还具有以下优势：·能够通过改变环境参数并为其重新生成风暴来评估气候变化情景的影响，例如海温和混合层深度的增加。考虑到飓风环路/涡流数据库的组合，合成风暴与合成涡流同时发展，因此联合飓风环路负载情况可能更好
This paper describes the development of a synthetic model for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, for use in establishing design criteria. The model has been derived using atmospheric and historical hurricane data from the 1940’s to 2006, and eddy data for the period 1984 through 2006. The influence of sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth on storm intensity is accounted for explicitly. The model is validated by comparing the results of a 100,000-year simulation to historical storm data. Using 300,000 years of storms derived from the model, wind criteria across the Gulf has been estimated for return periods up to 10,000-year, and compared to results from the traditional approach of extrapolating from siteaveraged historical data. This effort represents a step-change in the way hurricane criteria has traditionally been developed by industry. The synthetic hurricane model can improve the stability of hurricane design criteria, and provide more insight to the types of storms which generate rare (1,000to 10,000-year) site conditions. In addition to offering a more stable basis for hurricane design criteria, the synthetic model also offers the following advantages: Being able to assess the impacts of climate change scenarios such as increasing sea temperature and mixed layer depth, by changing environment parameters and re-generating storms for them. Allowing for a combined hurricane-loop/eddy database, with synthetic storms developed concurrent with synthetic eddies, so that joint hurricane-loop load cases may be better
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
LARGE, WG;POND, S
通讯作者：
POND, S