Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches
Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/02626661003683389
复制
发表时间：
2010-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Beven, Keith J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano;Schumann, Guy;Beven, Keith J.
通过比较确定性和概率性方法，使用流体动力学数值解，分析和讨论了不同的方法进行洪泛区映射。为了促进关键的讨论，国家的最先进的技术在洪水淹没建模领域应用到一个特定的测试站点（迪河，英国）。具体来说，不同的洪泛平原地图推导出这个测试网站。第一张地图是通过应用先进的确定性方法建立的：使用一个完全二维的有限元模型（TELEMAC-2D），对历史洪水范围进行校准，得出一个百年一遇的洪水淹没图。第二张地图是通过使用概率方法得出的：使用一个简单的基于光栅的洪水模型（LISFLOOD-FP），以获得一个不确定的洪水范围图预测1在100年的事件条件下的2006年洪水的程度。河漫滩地图，然后比较和两种不同的方法的优点和缺点进行了批判性的讨论。
Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.