Trend of Smear-positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran during 1995-2012: A Segmented Regression Model
Trend of Smear-positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran during 1995-2012: A Segmented Regression Model
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DOI：
10.4103/2008-7802.184317
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Khazaei, Somayeh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Khazaei, Salman;Soheilyzad, Mokhtar;Khazaei, Somayeh
背景资料：描述结核病随时间的变化趋势，对评估疾病控制策略和预测未来的发病率和死亡率具有重要作用。目的：分析1995 - 2012年涂阳肺结核（SPPT）在不同年龄和性别人群中的发病趋势。方法：采用世界卫生组织（WHO）公布的1995-2012年全国SPPT统计数据，于2015年进行回顾性队列研究。估计年百分比变化（APC）和平均年百分比变化（AAPC），以确定使用分段回归model.Results的趋势的汇总统计：在1995-2012年期间，伊朗有96,579例SPPT病例报告（男女比例：0.99）。在1995-2012年期间，年龄和性别亚组的SPPT发生率仅在1997年出现一个变化点。结论：SPPT的发病率呈下降趋势。看来，要实现既定目标并取得结核病控制计划的高成功，特别是减少SPPT，应更多地关注老年人和男性。此外，必须改善临床和医疗服务以及通知程序。
Background: Describing trend in tuberculosis (TB) over time can play an important role to assess the disease control strategies and predict the future morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine the incidence trend of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPT) in sub-age and sex groups during the years of 1995-2012.Methods: This retrospective cohort study was performed in 2015 by using the dataset regarding National Statistics of SPPT reported by World Health Organization during 1995-2012. Annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were estimated to determine the summery statistics of trend using segmented regression model.Results: During 1995-2012, there were 96,579 SPPT case notifications in Iran (male to female ratio: 0.99). There was only one change point in 1997 for SPPT incidence in subgroups of age and sex during 1995-2012. The AAPCs for both genders and also all three age groups had a significant descending trend during the time period (P < 0.05).Conclusions: Our results showed a downward trend in the SPPT incidence. It seems that to achieve the set goals and high successful in TB control program especially reduction in SPPT, pay more attention to old age and males should be considered. In addition, improvement of clinical and medical care services and notification processes would be imperative.