The hot hand phenomenon as a cognitive adaptation to clumped resources
The hot hand phenomenon as a cognitive adaptation to clumped resources
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热手现象是对聚集资源的认知适应
DOI：
10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2008.11.004
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
H. Barrett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andreas Wilke;H. Barrett
热手现象指的是一系列命中和未命中概率的“连续”预期，这些概率实际上是独立的（例如，投掷硬币，篮球投篮）。在这里，我们提出热手现象反映了一种进化的心理假设，即世界上的物品是成群出现的，而热手，而不是随机性，是我们进化的心理默认值。在两个实验中，美国大学生和美国的狩猎园艺学家参与了计算机任务，在这些任务中，他们预测在寻找水果、投掷硬币和其他几种随机生成的资源时的命中和失误。两个群体的受试者在所有资源类型中都表现出热手假设。唯一的例外是美国学生预测硬币投掷时热手减少了。这些数据表明，热手症是我们进化而来的心理默认现象，可以通过经历真正独立的随机现象（如抛硬币）来减少（尽管不能消除）。
The hot hand phenomenon refers to the expectation of “streaks” in sequences of hits and misses the probabilities of which are, in fact, independent (e.g., coin tosses, basketball shots). Here we propose that the hot hand phenomenon reflects an evolved psychological assumption that items in the world come in clumps, and that hot hand, not randomness, is our evolved psychological default. In two experiments, American undergraduates and Shuar hunter–horticulturalists participated in computer tasks in which they predicted hits and misses in foraging for fruits, coin tosses, and several other kinds of resources the distributions of which were generated randomly. Subjects in both populations exhibited the hot hand assumption across all the resource types. The only exception was for American students predicting coin tosses where hot hand was reduced. These data suggest that hot hand is our evolved psychological default, which can be reduced (though not eliminated) by experience with genuinely independent random phenomena like coin tosses.