Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate
Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.01.014
复制
发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Gregg, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gupta, Rajat;Gregg, Matthew
本文使用来自2009年英国气候变化预测的概率气候变化数据来定义极端气候变化，以模拟未来温度变化的影响，特别是夏季过热对现有英国房屋（位于牛津）的能源消耗和舒适度的影响。然后将气候变化风险作为气候危害、暴露和脆弱性的一个因素进行分析。随着理论上过热风险的确定，过热风险和未来变化对空间供暖能源使用的影响，然后在动态模拟建模软件（IES）中使用未来天气年建模的四种英国家庭类型进行了虚拟详细说明。然后对一系列被动适应措施进行严格审查，以最大限度地减少气候变化的负面影响，并确定减少或消除气候变化对舒适性和能源消耗的负面影响的最有效措施。此外，为了确定英国住宅适应性改造的最佳解决方案，对适应性选项进行了分组和测试。对于所有的家庭建模，用户控制的阴影被证明是最有效的适应。增加建筑织物的表面反照率和热质量的暴露也被证明是有效的，尽管证明是复杂的，需要详细考虑最佳位置。最终，在测试的被动式选项中，研究发现，没有一种可以完全消除房屋过热的风险，特别是到21世纪80年代。(C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
This paper uses probabilistic climate change data from the UK Climate Change Projections 2009 to define extreme climate change in order to model the effect of future temperature change, particularly summer overheating on the energy consumption of, and comfort in, existing English homes (located in Oxford). Climate change risk is then analysed as a factor of climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. With the risk of overheating theoretically identified, the risk of overheating and the future change impact on space heating energy use is then virtually detailed for four English home types modelled using future weather years in a dynamic simulation modelling software (IES). A range of passive adaptation measures are then critically reviewed with regard to their effectiveness in minimising the negative impacts of climate change and to identify the most effective measures in reducing or eliminating the negative impacts of climate change on comfort and energy consumption. In addition the adaptation options are grouped and tested as packages in order to identify the optimal solution for adaptive retrofitting of English homes. For all homes modelled, user-controlled shading proved to be the most effective adaptation. Increasing the surface albedo of the building fabric and exposure of thermal mass were also revealed to be effective although proving to be complicated and requiring detailed consideration of the optimal locations. Ultimately among the passive options tested, the research found that none could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in the homes, particularly by the 2080s. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.