Optimal Ordering Decisions with Uncertain Cost and Demand Forecast Updating
Optimal Ordering Decisions with Uncertain Cost and Demand Forecast Updating
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DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1456
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发表时间：
1999-10
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
H. Gurnani;Christopher S. Tang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Gurnani;Christopher S. Tang
我们确定的最优订货策略的零售商有两个时刻，以订购的季节性产品从制造商之前的一个销售季节。当需求不确定时，零售商可以利用第一时刻和第二时刻之间观察到的市场信号来改进预测。然而，由于制造环境的性质，第二时刻的单位成本是不确定的，并且可能高于（或低于）第一时刻的单位成本。为了确定利润最大化的订购策略在这两个时刻，零售商必须评估之间的权衡更准确的预测和潜在的更高的单位成本在第二个时刻。我们提出了一个嵌套的报童模型，以确定在每个时刻的最优订货量和特征的条件下，它是最优的零售商延迟其订单，直到第二个瞬间。
We determine the optimal ordering policy for a retailer who has two instants to order a seasonal product from a manufacturer prior to a single selling season. While the demand is uncertain, the retailer can improve the forecast by utilizing the market signals observed between the first and second instants. However, because of the nature of the manufacturing environment, the unit cost at the second instant is uncertain and could be higher (or lower) than the unit cost at the first instant. To determine the profit-maximizing ordering strategies at both instants, the retailer has to evaluate the trade-off between a more accurate forecast and a potentially higher unit cost at the second instant. We present a nested newsvendor model for determining the optimal order quantity at each instant and characterize the conditions under which it is optimal for the retailer to delay its order until the second instant.