European air quality in the 2030s and 2050s: Impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change
European air quality in the 2030s and 2050s: Impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change
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2030 年代和 2050 年代的欧洲空气质量：全球和区域排放趋势以及气候变化的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.04.033
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
D. Saint‐Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Lacressonnière;V. Peuch;R. Vautard;J. Arteta;M. Déqué;M. Joly;B. Josse;V. Marécal;D. Saint‐Martin
使用双向嵌套区域（欧洲）和全球域的化学传输模型，通过与最近的排放和气候进行比较，评估 2030 年代和 2050 年代气候和排放变化对欧洲空气质量的影响。我们调查了欧洲实施减少人为排放（氮氧化物、二氧化硫等）的污染物水平，以及在全球范围内，根据IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）产生的代表性浓度路径（RCP8.5）情景下的污染物水平。模拟显示，在本文研究的未来视野中，西北欧地表臭氧增加，而南部地区地表臭氧减少。在欧洲，平均 O3 水平在夏季以每十年约 3 µg m−3 的速度稳步上升。对于这种污染物，北半球长距离迁移和气候变化的影响已经过评估，似乎可以抵消甚至略微超过欧洲前体人为排放量减少的影响。研究发现，对流层臭氧预算主要由未来气候中平流层-对流层交换增强所主导，而化学预算则显着减少。我们的研究结果表明，氮氧化物限制化学品制度将覆盖欧洲大部分地区，尤其是未来的法国西部。这些发现可以支持未来有效的前体排放减排策略，以限制 O3 污染并维持或提高欧洲的空气质量标准。
A chemistry-transport model using two-way nested regional (Europe) and global domains is used to evaluate the effects of climate and emission changes on air quality over Europe for the 2030s and 2050s, by comparison with the emissions and climate of the recent past. We investigated the pollutant levels under the implementations of reduced anthropogenic emissions (NOx, SO2, etc) over Europe and, at the global scale, under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC. The simulations show an increase in surface ozone in northwestern Europe and a decrease in southern areas in the future horizons studied here. Over Europe, average O3levels steadily increase with a rate of around 3 μg m−3per decade in summer. For this pollutant, the contributions of long range transport over the Northern Hemisphere and climate changes have been assessed and appear to counterbalance and even slightly outweigh the effects of European reductions in precursors' anthropogenic emissions. The tropospheric ozone budget is found to be dominated by enhanced stratosphere–troposphere exchanges in future climate while the chemical budget is significantly reduced. Our results show that a NOx-limited chemical regime will stretch over most of Europe, including especially Western France in the future. These findings allow supporting efficient future precursor emissions abatement strategies in order to limit O3pollution and maintain or improve air quality standards in Europe.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Lamarque, J. -F.;Shindell, D. T.;Zeng, G.
通讯作者：
Zeng, G.