Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Produce More Skillful Forecasts
Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Produce More Skillful Forecasts
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DOI：
10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083
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发表时间：
2002-03
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
C. Mass;David Ovens;Kenneth J. Westrick;B. Colle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Mass;David Ovens;Kenneth J. Westrick;B. Colle
本文研究了提高水平分辨率对中尺度数值天气预报模式性能的影响。对以往研究的回顾表明，将网格间距减小到约10公里或更小通常会产生更符合实际的中尺度结构，对地形和昼夜驱动的气流尤其有益。对高分辨率预报的长期客观验证研究很少，这些研究可能具有误导性地表明，当水平网格间距减小到约10公里以下时，收益递减。对华盛顿大学MM5实时预报系统进行的多年客观验证，比较了在华盛顿州西部36公里、12公里和4公里网格间距下，长达48小时的预测地面参数的真实性。传统的验证统计量（如平均绝对误差、偏差和均方根误差）是通过将模式预报插值到观测站点来计算的。对于……
This paper examines the impacts of increasing horizontal resolution on the performance of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. A review of previous studies suggests that decreasing grid spacing to approximately 10 km or less generally produces more realistic mesoscale structures, with particular benefits for orographically and diurnally driven flows. There have been only a few long-term objective verification studies of high-resolution forecasts, and these studies suggest, perhaps deceptively, that there are diminishing returns as horizontal grid spacing decreases below approximately 10 km. A multiyear objective verification of the University of Washington MM5 real-time forecasting system compares the realism of predicted surface parameters at 36-, 12-, and 4-km grid spacing over western Washington state for periods up to 48 h. Traditional verification statistics (such as mean absolute, bias, and root-mean-square error) are calculated by interpolating model forecasts to the observation sites. Fo...